Microblog Forwarding Prediction Based on Hot Topics
CHEN Jiang1, LIU Wei2,3,4, CHAO Wenhan1, WANG Lihong2
1. School of Computing Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China;
2. National Computer network Emergency Response technical Team/Coordination Center of China, Beijing 100029, China;
3. Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)
Abstract：Microblog forwarding is an important way to the information dissemination, and microblog forwarding prediction is of great value in the analysis of microblog influence and microblog topic analysis. Existing methods of microblog forwarding prediction mostly focus on microblog and user attributes. In this paper, a microblog forwarding prediction method based on hot topics is proposed. We quantitatively analyze the impact of hot content and transmission tendency on users’ forwarding behavior, and then introduc features concerned with hot topics such as forwarding interest, forwarding activity and behavior pattern. Finally, we establish the hot topic oriented microblog forwarding prediction model based on the classification algorithm. Our experimental results on real data show that the accuracy of this method is 96.6%, and the max improvement of is 12.14%.
Key words microblog forward; forwarding prediction; hot topic
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2015, Vol. 29 
