Calculation and Prediction of Topic Popularity Based on Causal Model
DU Hui 1,2, GUO Yan 1, FAN Yixing 1,2, ZHANG Jin1, YU Zhihua1, CHENG Xueqi1
1. CAS Key Lab of Network Data Science and Technology, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China)
Abstract：Internet, with its freedom and richness, has become the most important channel of information dissemination. Hot topic mining benefits both policy making for government and business strategy adjustment for company. This paper presents an objective method to calculate topic popularity based on causal model by analyzing its influence factors. Data required by the algorithm is easy to obtain and considering panel data makes our algorithm more effective. Then we use multi-Gaussian curve to fit the movement of topic popularity which is useful for popularity prediction.
[1] Allan J, Carbonell J, Doddington G, et al. Topic detection and tracking pilot study: Final report[C]//Proceedings of the DARPA Broadcast News Transcription and Understanding Workshop, 1998:194-218. [2] 贾自艳,何清,张俊海等.一种基于动态进化模型的事件探测和追踪算法[J].计算机研究与发展, 2004, 41(7): 1273-1280. [3] J P Yamron, S Knecht, P van Mulbregt. Dragons Tracking and Detection Systems for the TDT2000 Evaluation[C]//Proceedings of Topic Detection and Tracking workshop. Washington, USA, 2000:75-80. [4] Dai X, Chen Q, Wang X, et al. Online topic detection and tracking of financial news based on hierarchical clustering [C]//Proceedings of the 2010 International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics. 2010: 3341-3346. [5] 聂恩伦,陈黎,王亚强等. 基于K近邻的新话题热度预测算法[J].计算机科学, 2012,39(6A):258-260. [6] 卢珺珈,张宏莉,张玥. 基于BBS 的热点话题发现与态势预测技术的研究[J].智能计算机与应用, 2012,2(2):2-5. [7] (美)贝里等著,吴晓刚主编. 因果关系模型[M]. 格致出版社, 2011. [8] Mao X, Chen W. A method for ranking news sources, topics and articles[C]//Proceeding of ICCET 2010, IEEE (2010), 2010, 4:170-174. [9] 罗亚平. 基于用户浏览行为的网络热点话题发现模型研究[D]. 北京邮电大学硕士学位论文, 2008. [10] Wang C, Zhang M, Ru L, et al. Automatic Online News Topic Ranking Using Media Focus and User Attention Based on Aging Theory[C]//Proceeding of CIKM 2008, ACM (2008), 2008: 1033-1042. [11] Chen C, Chen Y T, Sun Y, et al. Life Cycle Modeling of News Events Using Aging Theory[C]//Proceeding of ECML 2003, Springer (2003): 47-59. [12] Li H. A Linear Regression Based News Topic Hotness Calculation Approach[J]. Journal of Computational Information Systems, 2012, 8(20): 8637-8644. [13] 张虹,赵兵,钟华.基于小波多尺度的网络论坛话题热度趋势预测[J].计算机技术与发展,2009,19(4):76-79. [14] 刘勘,李晶,刘萍.基于马尔可夫链的舆情热度趋势分析[J].计算机工程与应用, 2011,47(36):170-173.
2016, Vol. 30 
