Calculation and Prediction of Topic Popularity Based on Causal Model
DU Hui 1,2, GUO Yan 1, FAN Yixing 1,2, ZHANG Jin1, YU Zhihua1, CHENG Xueqi1
1. CAS Key Lab of Network Data Science and Technology, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China)
Abstract:Internet, with its freedom and richness, has become the most important channel of information dissemination. Hot topic mining benefits both policy making for government and business strategy adjustment for company. This paper presents an objective method to calculate topic popularity based on causal model by analyzing its influence factors. Data required by the algorithm is easy to obtain and considering panel data makes our algorithm more effective. Then we use multi-Gaussian curve to fit the movement of topic popularity which is useful for popularity prediction.
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