微博转发行为是实现信息传播的重要方式,微博转发预测对微博影响力分析、微博话题分析具有重要价值。现有微博转发预测研究大多围绕消息属性、用户属性等微博自身特征,该文提出融合热点话题的微博转发预测方法,对背景热点话题内容和传播趋势对用户转发行为的影响进行量化分析,提出融合背景热点信息的转发兴趣、转发活跃度、行为模式等特征,并基于分类算法建立了面向热点话题相关微博的转发预测模型,在真实数据上的实验结果表明,该方法的预测准确性达到96.6%,提升幅度最高达到12.14%。
Abstract
Microblog forwarding is an important way to the information dissemination, and microblog forwarding prediction is of great value in the analysis of microblog influence and microblog topic analysis. Existing methods of microblog forwarding prediction mostly focus on microblog and user attributes. In this paper, a microblog forwarding prediction method based on hot topics is proposed. We quantitatively analyze the impact of hot content and transmission tendency on users’ forwarding behavior, and then introduc features concerned with hot topics such as forwarding interest, forwarding activity and behavior pattern. Finally, we establish the hot topic oriented microblog forwarding prediction model based on the classification algorithm. Our experimental results on real data show that the accuracy of this method is 96.6%, and the max improvement of is 12.14%.
Key words microblog forward; forwarding prediction; hot topic
关键词
转发行为 /
转发预测 /
热点话题
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Key words
microblog forward /
forwarding prediction /
hot topic
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基金
国家自然科学基金(61170230);国家科技支撑计划(2012BAH46B01);国家高技术研究发展计划(SS2014AA012303);国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2014AA015105)
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